The 'politics' Tag Archive

Below you'll find all my writing tagged with the word politics. The posts are listed in chronological order. Click the post title to read more.

December 8th, 2008

Dear Mr Freud, What About My Father?

GIBSON: Do you feel in any way responsible for what’s happening?

BUSH: You know, I’m the President during this period of time, but I think when the history of this period is written, people will realize a lot of the decisions that were made on Wall Street took place over a decade or so, before I arrived in President.

From an ABC News/Charlie Gibson Transcript, December 3, 2008

George Walker Bush, born July 6, 1946, is the forty-third and former President of the United States. He served as the forty-sixth Governor of Texas from 1995 to 2000 before being sworn in as president on January 20, 2001.

From Wikipedia, George W. Bush

George Herbert Walker Bush (born June 12, 1924) served as the forty-first President of the United States from 1989 to 1993.

From Wikipedia, George H.W. Bush

October 30th, 2008

Shortcutting Politics

The founders of the United States didn’t have the advantages of fMRI brain imaging and had no concept of the amygdala, but they were hesitant about political parties and political campaigning nonetheless. Fearful that a “torrent of angry and malignant passions will be let loose,” Alexander Hamilton railed against political parties in the first Federalist Paper, saying the parties would try to “increase the number of their converts by the loudness of their declamations and the bitterness of their invectives.” [...]

When the Bill Clinton-Monica Lewinsky scandal broke in March 1998, the psychologists quizzed participants to gauge their knowledge of Clinton and the details of the scandal. Then they asked emotion-based questions about how participants felt about Clinton as a person, how they felt about the Democratic and Republican parties, and how they felt about infidelity in general. Months later, before the Congressional impeachment trial began in December, they called the participants back and asked them a series of questions along the lines of “Do you think what the president has been accused of doing meets the standard set forth in the Constitution for an impeachable offense?” Using only what they knew about the respondents’ emotions, the researchers were able to correctly predict their views on impeachment 85 percent of the time. Knowledge meant little: When they factored in what the respondents actually knew about the situation and the Constitutional requirements for impeachment, they only improved the accuracy of their predictions by three percent. [...]

Westen and colleagues [also] used neuroimaging to look at the neural responses of individuals who described themselves as partisan. They showed the participants one of three groups of slides: one group about their party’s candidate, one about the other party’s candidate, or one about a neutral control subject. In each group, the first slide revealed a position the politician had taken, and the second depicted a contradiction — something the candidate had done or said that seemed to be contrary to what the first slide was saying. Not only were the participants unable to see the contradiction for their own candidate, but the neuroimaging also showed that they were regulating their emotional response. [...]

Because it is impossible to know everything there is to know, humans — and as it turns out lots of other species as well — use cognitive shortcuts when necessary to help the make a lot of life’s decisions. These mental shortcuts are not foolproof, but they’re convenient and good enough most of the time. [...]

Harvard psychologist and APS Fellow and Charter Member Ellen Langer observed similar rule-based behavior in a typical office setting. She had researchers ask if they could cut in line to use a copy machine. When they simply said, “Excuse me, may I use the copy machine?”, only 60 percent of the subjects complied. When the researchers gave a reason — “Excuse me, may I use the copy machine because I’m in a rush?” — 94 percent said yes. Langer tested this one more time with the phrase, “Excuse me, may I use the copy machine because I need to make some copies,” and again 93 percent of respondents agreed — despite the fact that “I need to make some copies” is not really a very good reason for cutting in line. [...]

The way Langer and Cialdini describe it, people hear the word “because” and assume that there is a good reason. That is to say, the word “because” is a shortcut people use to distinguish between good arguments and bad.

Link to Article in the Association of Psychological Science Observer

This is just one theory that is presented in a quite informative article. It would be interesting for me to see any kind of follow-up to these types of studies. I believe that the majority of people that would read and comprehend exactly what these experiments proved, would place themselves in an “elite” bracket above the general population — and thus argue against being guilty (not quite the right word) of the shortcutting. Even when confronted with immediate and provable results about how (physiologically and psychologically) they shortcutted logic paths, I’m not sure any subject would be able to recognize and respond with a critical analysis of themselves. I’m certainly not equipped with that kind of introspective superpowers.

We vote on what we feel. It’s a hard thing for science to explain.

October 20th, 2008

Idiots Out Wandering Around

What is the IEM?

The IEM is an on-line futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies’ earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns. The market is operated by University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business faculty as an educational and research project.  

Who can participate in the IEM?

The IEM is operated for research and teaching purposes. All interested participants world-wide can trade in our political markets. Other markets–such as the earnings and returns markets–are open only to academic traders.

Are the participants playing with real money?

YES. Trading accounts can be opened for $5 to $500. Participants then use their funds to buy and sell contracts. Traders therefore have the opportunity to profit from their trades but must also bear the risk of losing money.

Is the IEM regulated?

The IEM is an experimental market operated for academic research and teaching purposes. The IEM is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or any other regulatory authority.

Why would anyone operate a not-for-profit real-money market?

The IEM is operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business for educational and research purposes.

As business educators, we are concerned with preparing our students to be intelligent market participants. We and many of our colleagues at other institutions integrate the IEM into our courses. Students in these courses learn first-hand about the operation of financial markets and as a result become more well-informed traders in their future market interactions.

As business researchers, we are interested in market and trader behavior. The IEM provides a rich source of data for our research.

How does the IEM safeguard my money?

The IEM is operated under the auspices of the University of Iowa. You write your check to the University of Iowa and the funds are deposited to a University of Iowa account. When funds are withdrawn from your account, the University of Iowa accounting group (a group independent of the IEM) writes a check and mails it directly to your last known address. As a university operation, the IEM is subject to audits by university and state auditors.

Can I try out the IEM without investing money?

YES. Login to the IEM and follow the directions on the screen to log into the practice market. You will be able to do everything a trader can do, except trade in our real-money contracts.

October 20th, 2008

On the meaning of the US futures market

In the last few weeks, Intrade.com, which is based in Dublin, had consistently given John McCain as much as a 10 percentage point edge in his chances to be elected president compared with other large online overseas betting sites. These include the British-based Betfair.com, as well as the Iowa Electronic Markets, a research project at the University of Iowa that allows bets of $500 on election results.

The political explanation — that someone was trying to game the system to give Mr. McCain some momentum — has the advantage of at least appearing rational to economists. Increasing a candidate’s perceived standing would be something of value to offset the irrational decision to waste money buying a share in Mr. McCain for more than the absolute minimum price.

On Thursday, the chief executive of Intrade, John Delaney, responded to allegations that there had been market manipulation — in essence, that somehow Mr. McCain was being favored by artificial means.

Mr. Delaney conceded there had been erratic behavior — including spikes in the direction of Mr. McCain and away from Barack Obama “by up to 10 points.” And he said “trading that caused the unusual price movements and discrepancies was principally due to a single ‘institutional’ member on Intrade.”

“The surprising thing is not that there was some manipulation, it is that it was sustained,” said Forrest Nelson, who teaches at the University of Iowa and has followed Intrade as well.

These developments, he said, go against his instinct that a large market like Intrade with millions of dollars in bets — as opposed to the total $250,000 wagered at the Iowa markets — would be less likely to be an outlier in its odds for candidates.

David Rothschild, a Ph.D. candidate in business and public policy at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, has tracked these markets. He said of the institutional trader on Intrade: “If their job was to hedge bets, they were not doing a very good job at gaining these positions at a minimal cost. They are overpaying for these positions. I don’t know if they are doing it to manipulate the market, but they are not doing a very good job at minimizing their costs.”

The political explanation — that someone was trying to game the system to give Mr. McCain some momentum — has the advantage of at least appearing rational to economists. Increasing a candidate’s perceived standing would be something of value to offset the irrational decision to waste money buying a share in Mr. McCain for more than the absolute minimum price.

Continue Reading: NY Times

October 15th, 2008

We break our political indifference policy for this.

And only this.  And only this one time.  Holy jebus.

via Boing Boing (via dlisted)

October 13th, 2008

Taking another look at the evangelical voting bloc.

It helps to make some sense of arguments made by Michael Lindsay and Rebecca Sager, also on The Immanent Frame, that there are “new types” of evangelicals, often relatively progressive in their politics. And with the newly articulated concerns on, for example, poverty, AIDS, and global warming, by Rick Warren, Bill Hybels and others. So, understanding variation, and finding shades of gray in the “evangelical” monolith, may have significant political implications. [...]

Now it is true that in an electorate fairly neatly divided, one need not persuade very many people in order to win an election. Just a few cracks in the Republican base, including that part composed of conservative Protestants, may tip the balance. So perhaps I should not doubt the importance of the actual variation among those Christians who consider themselves “evangelicals.” But after the Saddleback Church “conversations” hosted by Rick Warren, where Obama spoke easily and sincerely about his faith, few churchgoers who attended (and spoke to reporters afterward) seemed to be persuaded to actually vote for a Democrat. He was still too different, too unknown, and, some said, still not right about the “core” social issue of abortion. For many people, there is now almost 30 years of associating evangelical Protestantism with voting Republican—it may well have become a part of evangelical identity for many, a core affiliation.

Thus, at least in an election year, when elected officials, aspiring candidates, consultants, and media all have a lot at stake on shaping their appeals effectively, this practical outcome seems to me to swamp the scholarly concerns scholars have with precision and definition. If we want to know who evangelicals are, how many there are, and what they believe and how they practice, I am all for precision, nuance, and variation. But if we need to know how “they” are going to pull a voting lever regarding an either/or choice in a divided electorate, it seems to me that the global term bandied about in the media tells us what we want to know.

From Rhys H. Williams at The Immanent Frame.

Also see:

A new kind of evangelical.

A progressive evangelical movement?

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